What if Sci-Fi Was Right? Climate Reality in South African Cities

Imagine a climate change reality based on Murphy’s general law that anything that could go wrong will go wrong, and climate crises spiraled even further. What if dystopian science fiction is not just fiction, but a glimpse into a possible future? Picture a South Africa where Cape Town’s “Day-Zero” drought never ended, spreading across the country and turning water scarcity into the norm.

The science fiction genre has long warned us of environmental collapse, and South Africa’s current crises such as extreme droughts, heatwaves, flooding, rolling blackouts, and deepening social inequalities are beginning to resemble the speculative disasters once thought to be purely imaginative.

As sci-fi legend Arnold Schwarzenegger once put it, “I’ve starred in a lot of science fiction movies and, let me tell you something, climate change is not science fiction. This is a battle in the real world, and it is impacting us now”.  This article explores the overlap between science fiction’s dystopian warnings and South Africa’s unfolding climate reality, and asks, what can be done now to rewrite the story before fiction becomes fact.

Sci-Fi’s Dystopian Visions

Science fiction often presents bleak visions of the future, characterized by central themes of environmental collapse and societal breakdown. Dystopian narratives, whether in films such as Blade Runner (where cities are polluted, overcrowded, and experiencing acid rains) or novels such as The Road by Cormac McCarthy (which depicts a post-apocalyptic landscape that is destroyed by an undetermined catastrophe), highlight bleak visions of the future. When current global climate challenges are projected into exaggerated future scenarios, sci-fi allows us to have a picture of the potential consequences of inaction.

South Africa’s Real Climate Threats

The scenarios in dystopian narratives uncomfortably resemble the realities of South Africa. Water insecurity, energy failures, and inequality dominate contemporary headlines and these are realities that mirror the imagined fictions. However, even the best fiction has not fully grasped the slow burning, deeply structural nature of South Africa’s climate crises.

In most science fictional stories, the tipping points are dramatic, disasters are instant, revolutions erupt overnight, and only a single apocalyptic event transpires. But for South Africa, the climate reality is far more drawn out and insidious where the rolling of energy black-outs have been there for years; there’s decades of long-drought cycles, and the urban decay is gradual.

Nonetheless, there are striking parallels that appear when these fictional dystopias are compared to South Africa’s real climate threats. Cities are increasingly facing the harsh realities of a changing climate, which echo several dystopian tropes. In sci-fi narratives, cities are often ravaged by extreme weather events in the form of storms and floods, images that now feel alarmingly familiar.

South Africa’s, climate models project that the eastern parts of the country will experience an increase in heavy rainfalls, making the region more prone to flooding (Johnston et al., 2024). For instance, the intense rain in April 2022, exacerbated by climate change, resulted in the loss of life (ibid). Coastal cities, too, are under severe threat. Rising sea levels and stronger tropical cyclones could reshape the future of coastal cities (Scholes & Engelbrecht, 2021) like Durban and Cape Town (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2016; The Benchmark Scenario Working Group, 2023).

Severe water shortages are a key characteristic of most dystopian futures. South Africa faces an overall drying trend across the country, except in the North-west (Johnston et al., 2016).  A scenario has already played out in Cape Town between 2015 and 2017, when the city came dangerously close to “Day-Zero”, made three to six times more likely by climate change (ibid), echoing fictional accounts of water rationing and conflict.

The limited availability of water is identified as a key determinant of economic and demographic activity in drier climate scenarios, potentially leading to rural depopulation and increased pressure on urban water systems (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2018).

The challenge of food security is another dystopian trope coming to life. In stories such as The Hunger Games, food scarcity fuels social unrest. Here at home, extreme heat and changing rainfall patterns are reducing land suitability for crops and threaten livestock (Scholes & Engelbrecht, 2021).

This affects both national food security and the livelihoods of small-scale farmers, who face greater risks from floods and droughts (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2018). Moreover, a drier climate might push commercial agriculture toward high-value export crops, potentially worsening food security issues for ordinary South Africans (ibid).

The eerie backdrop in speculative fiction is the acceleration of environmental degradation. South Africa is one of the most bio-diverse countries in the world however climate change, pollution, and land conversion threaten this natural wealth (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2018; Scholes & Engelbrecht, 2021; The Benchmark Scenario Working Group, 2023).

Fictional worlds like Blade Runner 2049 depict bleak, lifeless ecosystems, which may be our future. Scientists predict that up to 25% in South Africa’s unique fynbos biomes could end up extinct depending on future warming scenarios (Jonston et al., 2016). Biodiversity loss has cascading implications for human well-being and the economy.

Hopeful Solutions and Averting Disaster: Learning from Sci-Fi Futures

While dystopian parallels between science fiction and South Africa’s climate threats are alarming, the question remains, can disaster be averted? The answer, at least partly, is yes. Sci-fi often pivots at moments of collective awakening, when humanity becomes aware of its mistakes and takes deliberate action. Real-world solutions exist, but they require rapid, comprehensive and equitable implementation.

South Africa has committed to limiting greenhouse gas emissions and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, provided that there is adequate financing (Johnston, et al., 2016). It has invested in the adoption of renewal energy such as solar and wind energy, which is key to coal alternatives and providing reliable, affordable energy while reducing emissions.  Other efforts include enhancing soil carbon, planting new crop varieties, and using indigenous practices to harvest rainwater (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2018).

South Africa’s climate change adaptation scenarios stress the importance of upgrading infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2011 & 2018). This is also showcased in sci-fi worlds where advanced technologies solve environmental crises.

Contingency planning for both wetter and drier climate futures, even if requiring overdesign in infrastructure is also seen as necessary. Investing in early warning systems for disasters is emphasized as a measure with early returns across all sectors (Department of Environment, Forestry, and Fisheries, 2019).

Beyond technology, averting climate change impacts also demands societal transformation. The hope for restoration in dystopian sci-fi is rethinking the societal values and its organization. At the forefront of South Africa’s climate action is the need for a “just transition” concerned with addressing social justice concerns while decarbonizing the economy.

Policy shifts must be accompanied by behavioral change. The Department of Environmental Affairs (2018) calls for climate change considerations to be integrated into all major planning and development efforts. This means re-evaluating how resources such as water are produced, consumed, and conserved (Department of Environment, Forestry, and Fisheries, 2019). Changing social habits, like those around water use, must become as central as advancing technologies.

Implications for Climate Change Reality in South Africa

The comparison between science fiction's dystopian worlds and South Africa's unfolding climate crisis offers a sobering warning. While the future is not set in stone, current trends and official projections suggest that many of the challenges once confined to fiction could become reality if urgent climate action is not taken. To avoid a dismal future, bold and immediate efforts are needed.

The Benchmark Scenario Working Group (2023) emphasizes the critical importance of both mitigation and adaptation across all levels of society. South Africa's unique social and environmental landscape places issues of equity and vulnerability at the center of its climate response (Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries, 2019).

Vulnerable populations, especially those in informal settlements or lacking basic services, will be hit the hardest. Without targeted strategies, the country risks deepening inequalities and entering a dangerous era of climate apartheid, where only a portion of the population is protected from the worst impacts. Addressing this requires integrated approaches that consider how environmental, social, and economic systems are interconnected.

Climate responses must be holistic, inclusive, and flexible. The government must also invest in consistent monitoring and evaluation to track the effectiveness of its strategies and adjust them as needed. In addition, research and innovation are essential, especially in areas like climate modeling, impact assessments, and the development of resilient infrastructure and adaptation technologies.

Conclusion

The climate projections for South African cities mirror many of the dystopian themes long explored in science fiction. There’s an extreme weather, water scarcity, food insecurity, and biodiversity loss. While current state efforts in mitigation, adaptation and policy development offer glimpses of hope, they remain insufficient unless accelerated and implemented more equitably across all levels of government and society.

South Africa’s future depends on the extent to which solutions can effectively be implemented and how well they align with global climate commitments. Without bold, coordinated action, the country risks realizing a reality that once only belonged in the pages of speculative fiction.

Science fiction often features dramatic breakthroughs, but real-world progress can be achieved through steady, deliberate efforts. South Africa may not have the luxury of a cinematic ending, but still has a chance to rewrite a different, more hopeful future.

References

1. Department of Environmental Affairs. (2011). National climate change response white paper. Republic of South Africa.
2. Department of Environmental Affairs. (2016). Long term adaptation scenarios for South Africa. Pretoria, South Africa.
3. Department of Environmental Affairs. (2018). South African TNC report to the UNFCCC. Pretoria, South Africa.
4. Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries. (2019, November). National climate change adaptation strategy.
5. Johnston, P., Egbebiyi, T., Zvobgo, L., Omar, S., Cartwright, A., & Hewitson, B. (2024). Climate Change Impacts in South Africa: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People. University of Cape Town.
6. Scholes, R., & Engelbrecht, F. (2021). Climate impacts in southern Africa during the 21st Century. University of the Witwatersrand.
7. The Benchmark Scenario Working Group. (2023, May). Benchmark climate risk scenarios.

Written By: Lebogang Mogale

Edited By: Zaiba Abid