South Africa's Recent Floods: Is Climate Change to Blame?

South Africa has recently faced devastating floods destroying homes, infrastructure, and even loss of lives. These extreme weather events have raised concerns about whether climate change is responsible for such disasters increasing intensity and frequency. This article explores the recent floods, their causes, and whether climate change plays a role.

Recent Flooding Events

In early 2025, several regions of South Africa, including Gauteng, North-West, KwaZulu-Natal, and parts of the Eastern Cape, experienced heavy rains leading to severe floods. Rivers overflowed, roads were washed away, and thousands of people were forced to evacuate their homes, Businesses and industries, including significant mining operations were also impacted causing economic losses.

The South African Weather Service (2025) published a warning about heavy rainfall, but the scale of destruction was beyond expectations. Many residents suffered the worst effects, especially in informal settlements, as their homes were not built to withstand extreme weather conditions.

Impact on Infrastructure and Agriculture

In February 2025, during my fieldwork as a Research Technician near Klerksdorp, I observed severe road flooding that necessitated cautious driving. The water levels were so high that road markings were barely visible, and the asphalt was deteriorating. Overflowing mine humps caused water to flow onto the streets, highlighting the town's inadequate drainage system. Reports later confirmed that residents and road users were stranded due to the heavy rains and flooding. Buildings and mud houses in the surrounding area were waterlogged, causing damage to infrastructure (OFM, 2025).

The agricultural sector was also greatly affected; I witnessed crops like maize halfway submerged in water. The North-West province, one of South Africa’s top maize producers, is expected to suffer significant losses, which could lead to an increase in maize meal prices, placing financial strain on consumers. Farmers have invested heavily in soil preparation, irrigation, and costly equipment in hopes of economic consequences for South Africa as food prices rise and supply chains are disrupted. The ripple effect could extend to other industries reliant on agriculture, compounding the financial strain on both businesses and households.

Severe Weather in Different Provinces

KwaZulu-Natal was severely impacted by heavy rainfall in February 2025, triggering deadly mudslides and widespread flooding. A night-time mudslide in one village caused a house to shift, killing three family members. Other areas including Durban’s southern regions faced severe flooding, submerging homes and businesses. In Lamontville, five people including three children were swept away in a canal. Despite weather warnings, the devastation exceeded expectations, leading to R3.1 billion in damages and a national state of disaster. The crisis has intensified and it calls for better infrastructure and disaster preparedness to prevent future climate-related tragedies (News24, 2025).

In Gauteng, February 2025 saw a severe storm in Pretoria, causing flooding and significant wind damage. Emergency services reported uprooted trees, destroyed roofs, and vehicles submerged. Many homes were evacuated due to flooding. The South African Weather Service (SAWS), issued warnings, but the storm’s impact exceeded predictions, particularly in informal settlements, where homes were vulnerable. The storm highlighted the need for better infrastructure and disaster preparedness, especially with on-going extreme weather events affecting both urban and rural areas (EWN, 2025).

What Causes These Floods?

Floods occur when excessive rainfall overwhelms the capacity of rivers, drainage systems, and the soil to absorb water. Some of the key factors contributing to these recent floods include:

●     Heavy Rainfall: Powerful rainstorms dumped large amounts of water quickly.

●     Poor Drainage Systems: Urban areas with inadequate drainage struggle to cope with sudden heavy rains, leading to flooding.

●     Deforestation and Urbanization: Cutting down trees and expanding cities reduce the land’s ability to absorb water, making floods worse.

●     Climate Patterns: Natural weather cycles like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) influence rainfall patterns, sometimes bringing extreme weather (Zhang, 2013). The MJO is an eastward-moving system of clouds and rain that affects tropical weather, increasing rainfall intensity when active over the Indian Ocean (Wheeler & Hendon, 2004).

Is Climate Change Making Floods Worse?

Many scientists believe that climate change is causing more extreme weather events worldwide, including in South Africa. Global temperatures are rising, leading to changes in rainfall patterns. Warmer air holds more moisture, resulting in heavier rain and more frequent flooding.

South Africa has already seen shifts in its climate, with more intense droughts in some areas and heavier rains in others. Experts from the World Meteorological Organization have warned that Africa is warming faster than the global average, leading to more extreme weather-related disasters.

What Can Be Done?

To reduce the damage caused by floods, South Africa needs to take action in several ways:

●     Improving Infrastructure: Better drainage systems and flood barriers can help protect cities.

●     Early Warning Systems: Investing in technology to predict heavy rains can save lives.

●     Environmental Protection: Planting more trees and preserving wetlands can help absorb excess water.

●     Climate Change Action: Reducing carbon emissions and adopting sustainable practices can slow global warming and reduce extreme weather events.

Conclusion

The recent floods in South Africa serve as a stark reminder of the increasing risks posed by extreme weather events. While natural climate cycles such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) significantly influence rainfall patterns, the role of climate change cannot be ignored. Scientific evidence suggests that rising global temperatures intensify these natural patterns, leading to more extreme and unpredictable weather.

So, is climate change to blame? The answer is not straightforward. Climate change may not be the sole cause of these floods, but it is amplifying their intensity and frequency. As warmer air holds more moisture, heavy rainfall events become more severe, increasing the likelihood of flooding. Additionally, human activities—such as deforestation, poor urban planning, and inadequate drainage systems—worsen the impact of heavy rains.

Climate change is really happening, it is March now and we are still receiving rainfall. The rainfall season is slightly shifting making it hard for people like farmers to plan. Back then, it was highly expected that rainfall would be expected from December to February. Now we find ourselves not knowing what will hit us next.

To mitigate future risks, South Africa must invest in stronger infrastructure, improved forecasting systems, and sustainable environmental policies. While climate change is a global challenge, proactive local measures can help reduce flood damage and protect vulnerable communities. By addressing both climate change and socio-economic factors, South Africa can build resilience against future extreme weather events.

References

1. EWN. (2025). Storm causes flooding, homes & buildings sustain wind damage in Pretoria. Eyewitness News. Available at: https://www.ewn.co.za/2025/02/19/storm-causes-flooding-homes-buildings-sustain-wind-damage-in-pretoria [Accessed 14 Mar. 2025].
2. Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., Trisos, C., Romero, J., Aldunce, P., Barret, K. and Blanco, G., 2023. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
3. News24, 2025. Three people die in mudslides as severe flooding ravages KZN. [online] Available at: https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/three-people-die-in-mudslides-as-severe-flooding-ravages-kzn-20250220 [Accessed 14 March 2025].
4. OFM.,2025. North West floods: Heavy rains leave residents, road users stranded. Available at: https://www.ofm.co.za/article/centralsa/335918/north-west-floods-heavy-rains-leave-residents-road-users-stranded (Accessed: 15 March 2025).
5. South African Weather Service., 2025. Media Release: Expected heavy rain a threat to motorists and the public during the weekend. [Facebook post] 16 March. Available at: https://www.facebook.com/WeatherServic/posts/media-releaseexpected-heavy-rain-a-threat-to-motorists-and-the-public-during-the/620326833720614/ [Accessed 16 March 2025].
6. Zhang, C., 2013. Madden–Julian oscillation: Bridging weather and climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(12), pp.1849-1870.

Written By: Tshedza Matladi

Edited By: Thakane Hoeane