Climate change threatens Egypt's economy and food security

The impact of climate change on agriculture in Egypt, a North African country, is enormous and might have serious consequences for the country's economy and food security.

In particular, agriculture production in this country must increase by 70% by 2050 to keep up with population expansion and changing diets. As a result, agriculture's sensitivity to climate change has been reduced (El-Ramady et al, 2013).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change would affect Egypt primarily in three ways: temperature rise, sea level rise, and decreased water availability. These consequences will exacerbate Egypt's existing environmental and natural resource strains, particularly pressures on irrigable land and food production (Climate Diplomacy, July 2015).

Temperature rise is one of the most significant effects of climate change on agriculture in Egypt. According to a study that intends to analyze the influence of temperature increases on water demand for irrigation in four Egyptian governorates (Giza, Bani-Sweif, Al-Fayoum, and Minya), the possible temperature rise in 2050 will be 2.21 °C. In addition, the increase in irrigation water demands for summer crops varied from 4.9 to 5.8 percent in 2050, affecting Egypt's water security (Mostafa et al, 2021).

Crop yields have decreased as temperatures have risen, particularly for cereals such as wheat and maize. According to an empirical analysis, wheat yield in Egypt will fall by 8.6 percent in 2050 as greenhouse gas emissions increase, causing the temperature to climb by around 2.12 °C in 2050. (Mostafa, et al, 2021). Furthermore, the agricultural simulation model for Egypt (ASME) revealed that climate change would have a direct impact on total crop areas for 13 crop categories, including the self-sufficiency of wheat, rice, cereal, and maize supplies (Omar et al, 2021).

Another impact of climate change on agriculture in Egypt is the reduction in water availability. Egypt is highly dependent on the Nile River for irrigation. Most Egyptians are associated with the agricultural sector, which constitutes 20% of gross national products and consumes about 80% of the water budget (Darwish et al, 2013). A study expected that climate change would affect water demand, groundwater withdrawals, and aquifer recharge, reducing groundwater availability in Egypt's Nile valley (Khir-Eldien, et al, 2017). This decrease in water availability has led to a reduction in land that can be irrigated, which has had a significant impact on crop yields.

In partnership with the Egyptian government, the UN Development Programme estimates the probable implications of climate change on Egypt's agriculture economy in 2030 and 2060. According to the findings, agricultural productivity is expected to fall by 8-47 % by 2060, with agricultural welfare losses ranging from 40-234 billion Egyptian pounds in the same year (United Nations Development Programme, 2012).

Overall, climate change has a negative impact on the Egyptian agricultural industry, as projected (2030-2060). The rise in agricultural commodity prices has a detrimental impact on consumers. Egypt can mitigate these effects by implementing reduced demand growth, more agricultural technical advances, sea-level rise mitigation, and water conservation techniques (McCarl et al, 2015). Finally, perform additional efforts to raise farmer awareness. According to a survey, 51.9% of the farmers interviewed in two governorates in Egypt had no knowledge of the climate change issue (Kassem et al, 2019).

References

• El-Ramady, H. R., El-Marsafawy, S. M., & Lewis, L. N. (2013). Sustainable agriculture and climate changes in Egypt. Sustainable Agriculture Reviews: Volume 12, p.43.‏
• Khir-Eldien, K., & Zahran, S. A. (2017). Nile Basin climate changes impacts and variabilities. The Nile River, p.563. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/698_2016_116 
• Climate Diplomacy. (2015). Egypt Climate-Fragility Risk Brief Accessed on 25 March 2023 1:32 PM. https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/conflict/egypt-climate-fragility-risk-brief 
• Omar, M. E. D. M., Moussa, A. M. A., & Hinkelmann, R. (2021). Impacts of climate change on water quantity, water salinity, food security, and socioeconomy in Egypt. Water Science and Engineering, 14(1), 17-27.‏ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167423702100020X 
• Mostafa, S. M., Wahed, O., El-Nashar, W. Y., El-Marsafawy, S. M., Zeleňáková, M., & Abd-Elhamid, H. F. (2021). Potential climate change impacts on water resources in Egypt. Water, 13(12), 1715. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/12/1715  ‏
• Darwish, K. H., Safaa, M., Momou, A., & Saleh, S. A. (2013). Egypt: land degradation issues with special reference to the impact of climate change. Combating desertification in Asia, Africa and the middle east: proven practices, PP, 113-136.‏ https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-6652-5_6 
• Kassem, H. S., Bello, A. R. S., Alotaibi, B. M., Aldosri, F. O., & Straquadine, G. S. (2019). Climate change adaptation in the delta Nile Region of Egypt: Implications for agricultural extension. Sustainability, 11(3), 685.‏ https://www.mdpi.com/402856
• United Nations Development Programme. (2012). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy. https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/egypt.report_final.pdf
• McCarl, B. A., Musumba, M., Smith, J. B., Kirshen, P., Jones, R., El-Ganzori, A., ... & Hynninen, R. (2015). Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector. Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 20, 1097-1109.‏
  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9