Climate change and food security in Egypt
In 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pronounced that climate change threatens food security and the population.
It also indicated that four out of eight major threats incurred by climate change have a direct link and effect on food security. These threats include the loss of rural livelihoods and income, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, and food insecurity, including the breakdown of food systems.
One of the countries that will suffer significantly from this problem is Egypt. Most of Egypt's land is desert, and only 7.7 percent of Egypt’s area is inhabited. The majority of Egyptians live either in the Nile Delta, located in the northern part of the country, or the narrow Nile Valley, which lies south of Cairo. The Nile Delta is considered one of the three most vulnerable sites in the world to experience sea-level rises. By 2100, the IPCC anticipates an increase in sea levels ranging from 18 to 59 centimeters.
Rising sea levels would destroy vulnerable areas of the sand belt, which is necessary to protect lagoons and low-lying reclaimed lands in Egypt's Nile Delta. Since the lagoons provide one-third of Egypt's fish catches, the effects would be devastating. Sea-level rise would also change water quality and affect most freshwater fish.
Agriculture is an important part of the Egyptian economy, accounting for 11.4 percent of the GDP and up to 23.3 percent of employment. Rice, wheat, maize, cotton, sugarcane, and horticultural crops such as vegetables, fruit, and dates are the most crucial agricultural commodities.
Since climate change and food security are intertwined, other sectors such as transportation, infrastructure, tourism, and health cannot be excluded. A shortage of food may arise due to the transportation sector's vulnerability to climate change. As a result, higher transportation costs are anticipated to ensure appropriate infrastructure and sufficient transportation options. There may also be regional variations in food preparation, distribution, and storage. The total potential damages from all these vulnerabilities could reach 6 percent of Egypt's GDP.
Abdel Moneim El-Banna, who was the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation in 2018, stated that the Agricultural Research Center successfully developed eight new varieties of rice that consume less water. To protect water resources, the cultivated rice area will be limited to a maximum of one million acres. Egypt is also considering implementing major projects in the agricultural sector to mitigate the effects of climate change. These projects include the establishment of 100,000 greenhouses to provide vegetables throughout the year at competitive prices, control rising costs, and introduce high-quality agricultural products.
Meanwhile, Egypt is facing a food crisis as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Egypt relies on both countries to meet half of its domestic demand for cereal grains and oilseeds. Additionally, Egypt's agriculture has been unable to keep pace with the growing population.
Dr. Yasmine Fouad, Minister of Environment, indicates that Egypt intends to concentrate on agricultural inputs and production methods that employ modern surface irrigation techniques to improve the efficiency of current agricultural water use. Cropping patterns will need to shift toward more tolerant crop species and improved soil management. It is also necessary to increase the biodiversity of strategic crop and livestock varieties by introducing new traits that are resistant to extreme weather events.
Another top priority will be the establishment of an early warning system to disseminate data at the national and regional levels and exchange information. Egypt is facing the risk of decreased food production associated with a hike in food prices. To avoid starvation, policies and procedures need to be adapted by the Egyptian government.
