Between Displacement and Disaster: Climate Change Vulnerabilities in Informal Settlements

On January 23, 2025, the South African president signed the Land Expropriation Bill, triggering a wave of illegal land occupations in Juju Valley, an emerging informal settlement near Polokwane, Limpopo (Munyai, 2025).

This event highlights the urgent and complex links between urban poverty, land access/housing demand, and climate vulnerability. As the urban poor claim land to meet their housing needs in locations that may be environmentally precarious, critical questions arise about sustainable housing, community resilience, and South Africa’s transition to climate adaptation. This article discusses the fundamentals of informal settlements, their vulnerabilities, their significance in the context of climate change, and potential solutions.

Climate Change and Urban Vulnerabilities

We live in a polycrisis world, where multiple crises overlap with interactions that amplify their effects (Simpson et al, 2021).). Climate change and rapid urbanization have amplified risks for the urban poor living in informal settlements (Williams et al., 2019). South Africa is already experiencing climate change effects such as prolonged dry spells, extreme heatwaves, and increased rainfall intensity (Republic of South Africa [RSA], 2019). Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable due to their existing social and spatial inequalities, making it difficult for communities to adapt and recover from environmental-related disasters.

The reality is that the global temperature rise overlaps with the expected rapid urbanisation, where there is increased pressure on land and housing. This means that informal settlements will continue to grow, spiralling into unsafe locations, where residents are more exposed to environmental hazards.  These can be in the form of rising sea levels, flooding, and intensified storms that further threaten already vulnerable communities. This leads to the loss of livelihoods, forced displacement, and a deepening cycle of poverty.

Understanding Informal Settlements

Informal settlements are defined as areas where housing is built without legal approval and does not meet the planning, building, health, and safety regulations (Satterthwaite et al., 2018). In South Africa, these settlements have grown due to urbanization, housing shortages, poverty, and the lingering effects of apartheid among others. They are characterized by poor-quality housing, lack of basic infrastructure, insecure land tenure, and locations prone to environmental hazards. These factors contribute significantly to climate vulnerability, for instance, the inadequate housing and infrastructure in informal settlements cannot withstand extreme weather conditions (Smit et al, 2017; Ncube et al, 2023; Dlamini et al, 2024).

A major issue in the settlements is the lack of infrastructure and basic services (Banks et al, 2019). Without access to clean water, proper sanitation, and reliable electricity, residents struggle to meet their daily needs, let alone prepare for climate-related disasters. For instance, the absence of proper drainage systems exacerbates vulnerability to flooding, while poor ventilation and overcrowding have health implications during heatwaves.

Climate Vulnerability in Informal Settlements

The characteristics of informal settlements are pathways for vulnerability to climate change impacts. The level of vulnerability in informal settlements depends on social, spatial, economic, and political conditions (Hambrecht, 2022). Vulnerability is defined as the extent to which a system, person, or group is put at risk, copes, resists, and recovers from a disaster based on their characteristics (Usamah et al, 2014). Williams et al, (2019) describe vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Informal settlements are vulnerable because of their exposure to climate risks and their pre-existing conditions.

A major contributor to this vulnerability is the absence of formal planning (Satterthwaite et al, 2020). Without proper planning, many informal settlements lack access to basic services such as water, electricity, sanitation, waste management, healthcare, and infrastructure to support emergency response (Satterthwaite et al., 2020). The displacement of informal settlements in urban peripheries challenges access especially to health care and emergency services in events of disasters caused by climate.

Formally planning for informal settlements in the context of climate change also implies access to risk reducing infrastructure such as paved roads and drainage systems which play a role in mitigating disasters by accelerating storm water run-off in case of flooding. Planning plays a role in ensuring the feasibility of land for development. Not all land is feasible for residential use and without proper scoping studies, informal settlements are often displaced in hazardous environments (i.e. steep slopes, near waste dumps, dolomitic areas, or floodplains) (Satterthwaite et al, 2020; Hambrecht, 2022; Dlamini et al., 2024).

This is notwithstanding the socio-economic factors that play a significant role in shaping vulnerability. Poverty and the lack of financial security make it difficult for informal settlement communities to relocate or invest in more resilient housing. In addition to this, limited political representation also reduces their ability to advocate for improvements or emergency assistance during disasters.

The Complexity of Informality

Informality exists in multiple forms beyond visible and obvious informal settlements (Harris, 2017; Smit et al, 2017). It includes informal rentals, illegal secondary suites, and backyard structures which are less visible, and these can exist in the already visible locations of informality. This goes to show that informality is not linear and thus vulnerabilities are not entirely universal.

Smit et al (2017) discusses the categorisation of visible informality of settlements and their variations. The categories they use to classify informal settlements is based on whether they are formal, informal, legal, illegal, planned, or/and unplanned. A combination of these can coexist, influencing the extent of vulnerability. Other factors that set informal settlements apart are identified by Smit et al. (2017) where categorisation is based on origin and age. All these categories and factors can overlap.

This means that based on the extent of informality, informal settlements have varying degrees of vulnerability especially to climate change and do not require solutions that are blanket approach. Although there may be similarities between informal settlements, their characteristics are not homogenous. Khan et al (2023) make a considerable argument, that universal framings of informal settlements are problematic as they contribute to urban inequality, marginalization, and socio-spatial bothering by overlooking the complex social, economic, and political dynamics of these settlements.

The question remains that what does this mean for climate change impacts and vulnerability? Khan et al (2023) concludes that when interventions are made for these spaces, approaches should be nuanced and consider the heterogeneous and intersectional nature of people, places, and the processes involved.

Rethinking Solutions: Beyond Formalization

Addressing the challenges of informal settlements requires more than just regulation and formalization (Banks et al, 2019). Since informality is a complex phenomenon with entrenched historical, social, economic, and political roots, interventions made for informal settlements should be multifaceted (Banks, 2019). With specificity to informal settlements and climate change, the concept of climate justice is central to this discussion, as climate change exacerbates existing inequalities.  Approaching challenges in informal settlements requires critical analysis that recognizes the compounded nature of power dynamics, inequalities, and actor relationships.

This means that challenges in informal settlements are not only for the urban poor (ibid). Khan et al (2023) state that the fundamentals of addressing informal settlements' challenges and understanding their context to challenge the stigmatization of informal settlements must also be challenged, as negative perceptions hinder meaningful interventions. This highlights the need to recognise informal settlements as distinct features and shift from blanket approaches (Harris, 2017).

The relationship between informal and formal is not binary but exists on a continuum that can be understood through critical analysis (Banks et al, 2023). The impacts of climate change do not distinguish between formal and informal areas (Kekana et al 2022; Ncube et al, 2023), therefore integrating informal settlements into the broader resilience and adaptation strategies is paramount (Ncube et al, 2023). It is also evident that informal settlements are not a problem for the urban poor but for all affected groups (i.e. government, business, NGOs).

For these reasons, it is important to analyze how affected actors negotiate in these informal spaces. This is because the concept of ‘informality’ in itself is often used by powerful actors to strategically influence action in their favor while displacing the urban poor even further (Banks et al, 2023).  Thus, making it imperative to analyse how power and resources are distributed, and that the agency of informal settlement actors is acknowledged. The concept of critical analysis is particularly important when navigating climate change impacts in informal settlements (Zievorgel et al, 2016)

Conventional interventions for climate change can potentially worsen the existing inequalities due to unfair resource distribution, recognition, and actor involvement in decision-making (Kekana et al, 2022). Addressing challenges in informal settlements is multi-scalar and thus makes it important to know who is involved from all scales so that the complexity of interventions is not undermined. Climate change challenges require coordinated action at all levels, from local communities to international bodies (Fox, 2023). When communities are actively engaged in climate adaptation planning, they can contribute local knowledge, identify their most pressing challenges, and propose viable solutions tailored to their specific needs.

Way Forward: Sustainable and inclusive adaptation

Forced evictions and relocation of informal settlements are not a viable solution, especially in the context of climate justice.  Although formalization is often suggested as a solution, it may unintentionally exacerbate inequality and exclusion. Banks et al (2019) argue that formalization is not always the solution to addressing informality because due to the nature of urban development regulations, informal settlements may be further excluded. Instead, strategies should focus on reducing risk, improving basic services, and enhancing community resilience (Ncube et al, 2023). This means that alternative strategies of addressing the compounded challenges in informal settlements, that take into consideration the nature of informal settlements and processes, need to be explored.

Interventions curated for these spaces should be sustainable and long-term because informal settlements are not a temporary phenomenon and in most cases they are permanent spaces that need to be recognized as such. Informal settlements do not exist in opposition to the state; in many cases, they develop with government tolerance or involvement (Varley, 2013). They are a way of addressing the demand for affordable housing in urban spaces, and authors such as Khan et al (2023) also suggest that for this reason, the state may mimic informal practices in some cases.

This brings to light the complex interplay between actors involved with informal settlements. Acknowledging that informality is likely to persist requires developing adaptation strategies that are tailored to the specific needs and contexts of informal settlements, rather than relying on short-term or temporary solutions (Fox et al, 2023). Furthermore, recognizing the potential for collaboration between informal communities and government agencies can lead to more effective and equitable climate change responses (Ziervogel et al, 2016).

Conclusion

When these fundamentals of displacement are taken into account, climate disaster reduction, resistance, and recovery to climate change impact become effective. Addressing climate change vulnerabilities in informal settlements requires holistic, long-term solutions that go beyond formalization. Recognizing these settlements as permanent urban realities enables more inclusive, adaptive, and just climate strategies. By prioritizing climate justice, equitable resource distribution, and community participation, South Africa can foster resilience and reduce disaster risks, ensuring a more sustainable urban future.

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Written By: Lebogang Mogale

Edited by Takudzwa Charisse Taruza